Международная научная конференция ЮВА в СПбГУ-65

Международная научная конференция, посвященная 65-й годовщине начала изучения языков ЮВА в нашей стране The Sunnylands Declaration (2016) and the US—ASEAN Relations... 333 China, the development of US —China relations and China's behavior towards SoutheastAsian countries and the region will directly dominate US—ASEAN relations. China's ambition for a sea power, intensifying its militarization and brutal, illegal behavior in the South China Sea, as well as their intention to manipulate the economy of the region through the flip side of major projects are China’s major limitations in gaining confidence fromASEAN countries. These are opportunities for the US. The subjective factor belongs to the decisions of the ASEAN countries and the US. On the US side , no matter the method, the US government cannot lose ASEAN and Southeast Asia. Therefore, harmonizing the US interests with ASEAN and increasing influence in this region will be inevitable. But whether or not to be dominated by other partners / regions / issues depends onAmerica’s strategic priority for Southeast Asia andASEAN in particular circumstances. On the ASEAN side , the possibility of consensus in cooperation with the US will depend on the interests of each country rather than the interests of the whole. The US-ASEAN relations will be favorable as the US can reconcile the interests with ASEAN countries and demonstrate their commitment to protect the interests of Southeast Asian countries, ensuring a peaceful, security and prosperous Southeast Asia. In the mid-term future, due to limited capacity and “delicate” strategic position, ASEAN will maintain a balance policy and selective cooperation with the US and China to ensure benefits. The worst scenario can be mentioned is the US-China relationship cannot be saved, then, depending on national interests, ASEAN countries fall into a situation where they are forced to choose and ASEAN will be divided. In comparison with other ASEAN's great partners, China is the fastest-growing country in developing relations with ASEAN: only 12 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations (July 1991 — 10/2003), the two sides upgraded to a strategic partnership level. Meanwhile, the US needs 38 years to reach this cooperation mechanism. Currently, ASEAN and China have expanded the scope