The arcs of instability, highlighted by Russian researchers, reflect rising geopolitical tensions leading to shifts in the traditional cultural and civilisational layers of security, a reformatting of the disputed regions and changes in control over territories. 

The conference was opened by Andrey Klimov, Senator of the Russian Federation, Chair of the Ad Hoc Commission on Protecting State Sovereignty and Preventing Interference in the Domestic Affairs of the Russian Federation, Deputy Chair of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs. In his opening address, he noted that the date of the conference — 27 January — coincides with the 80th anniversary of the lifting of the Siege of Leningrad.

There is a strong connection between those events of the past and the theme of this conference. Then, the enemy tried to encircle and destroy us. Similar attempts are taking place now. We are witnessing military and technical intervention, economic pressure, and efforts to impose a diplomatic blockade on our country. This is evidence that what has been discussed here at St Petersburg University for over a decade has enormous relevance. The warnings and forecasts voiced at this annual conference enable us to develop a comprehensive programme of action.

Senator Andrey Klimov

Senator Andrey Klimov said that, judging by the recent trends, we are about to see the supporters for the fight against any manifestations of neo-colonialism across the globe joining efforts. Professor Vladimir Kolotov, Head of the Department of History of the Far East Countries at St Petersburg University, picked up the thread and reminded the participants that more than 90 living and dead languages of Asia and Africa are currently studied and taught at St Petersburg University. Indeed, anti-colonial themes are among research interests of the University scholars. "Pivoting to the East with advice from orientalist scholars would be much more effective than without them. It is crucial that the authorities and the expert community should coordinate their efforts," stressed Vladimir Kolotov. "St Petersburg University is an expert institution of the Russian Federation that can be actively involved in defending the interests of the country."

Yury Shuvalov, representative of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) Secretariat, conveyed greetings from the CSTO Secretary General to the conference and spoke about the challenges of transition to a multipolar world order. The expert highlighted the specific pain points: complicated relations between Russia and Armenia and between Russia and the countries of Central Asia; growing tensions on the border with Afghanistan, with one of the possible scenarios being the escalation of the conflicts with tribal factions beyond Kabul’s control. According to the expert, the current arc of instability might be broken in the near future, as early as in 2024-2025.

Everyone is waiting for the elections in the USA. Beijing and Tehran are closely watching the situations in the Middle East and on the Korean Peninsula, which, according to the forecasts, will remain tense. The world will not be the same; and no one knows for sure what a multipolar world is, or what it will be like, how it will be institutionalised, nor how decisions will be made. All of these issues need to be discussed.

Yury Shuvalov, representative of the CSTO Secretariat

Professor Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, suggested discussing the reception of Russia’s ‘pivot to the East’. Professor Maslov noted that, according to a recent study, this policy shift is not popular in China, Indonesia, India and many other countries. Despite its ideological correctness, the choice of words in the "pivot to the East" slogan is rather poor. To our Asian partners, it sounds like a colonial slogan; thus, causing psychological rejection in the Eastern nations. Alexey Maslov stressed that the word ‘pivot’ in the slogan was not suggested by orientalist scholars, whilst it is due to this word that many of the new policy initiatives have been not very successful. 

The opportunity to get an insider’s view of the situation on the ground is very valuable. It appears that Russia, for instance, is not a priority trade partner for China. Although China has adopted a pro-Russian neutrality in its foreign policy, what is critical for this country right now is not political, but economic issues. To solve these issues, the country is implementing some of the traditional strategies, such as: stimulating economic demand; negotiating win-win deals with international partners; and seeking cooperation for mutual economic benefits. This is illustrated by the phrase "cold politics, hot economics". In this respect, China prioritises American and Western European markets. "China is, indeed, the main trade partner for us, but they do not view us as their trade priority. China is building its policy seeking to achieve technological and economic sovereignty. They have alternative options, and we should have alternatives as well," Alexey Maslov stressed. 

Associate Professor Major General Nikolay Plotnikov, Head of the Centre for Scientific and Analytical Information at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, talked about the situation in the Middle East. Among the major destabilising factors, he singled out: water shortages; migration of people from rural areas to cities as a result of climate change; population growth; and rampant unemployment. In the expert’s opinion, all these factors and processes provoke the radicalisation of society and create a fertile ground for recruitment into terrorist groups. The unresolved Palestinian issue and the increasing production of synthetic drugs remain the main causes for the growing turmoil in the region. 

Vladimir Bondurovsky, Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly, Head of the Expert Analytics Department, delivered a report summarising the main results of the regular session of the CSTO Collective Security Council, held in November 2023. Vladimir Bondurovsky also discussed measures to counter the challenges and threats to collective security. Professor Pang Chang Wei of the China University of Petroleum (Beijing) analysed the development of the geopolitical situation in the world over the last year. 

Archpriest Alexander Pelin, Head of the Department for Church-Society Relations of St Petersburg Eparchy, shared views on the different models of the emerging world order. In his opinion, the world of the future will not be multipolar; there will be only a few centres of power and influence.

We expect that by 2070 there will have been several designated economic macrozones that will determine the new global order. Each macrozone will need to possess economic, technological, military and human resources. But most importantly, each of them will need to have a strong spiritual and religious foundation.

Archpriest Alexander Pelin

The first thesis, according to Alexander Pelin, that our country could offer is the primary narrative of anti-colonialism that would allow for the countries of the global South to live a safe and socially responsible life. For this, we need to be at the forefront of the new theology. The second thesis is the upholding of traditions and fundamental values, including faith in God, love for the Motherland and one’s family. 

Professor Vladimir Kolotov, Head of the Department of History of the Far East Countries at St Petersburg University, as per tradition, presented an updated version of the interactive map of the Eurasian system of arcs of instability and analysed the main parameters of the changing security situation in 2023. In his opinion, two segments of the arc of instability are currently the hottest conflict zones: the Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Among the contributing factors are: the failed offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that distracts attention from the Eastern European front; the attempts to sway Russian domestic politics (the Wagner group crisis and stress tests in the Republics of Bashkortostan, Sakha (Yakutia), and Dagestan); the ‘mushrooming’ of destructive cults; migrants; the creation of ethnic organised crime groups; and other phenomena.

This year’s slogan is "Everybody fight!"; and the main questions are: which scenario is most favourable to Russia and which is most favourable to our adversaries. I am referring to the competition of integration processes. This, in fact, contributes to disintegration. The existing consolidating structures are collapsing, and the number of players in the ‘Big Game’ is growing.

Professor Vladimir Kolotov, Head of the Department of History of the Far East Countries at St Petersburg University

Essentially, the project that we discuss here at the conference aims at instigating and exporting instability to geopolitical competitors. At present, it proves to be extremely efficient: the cultural space is being reformatted; the memory and language of peoples are being changed; history is being rewritten; and ethnicities are being pitted against each other. 

The divergent trends are especially pronounced at the moment. On the one hand, there are pending conflicts on Russia’s borders, aiming to shift Moscow’s focus on the Ukraine. On the other hand, new hotbeds of instability are emerging, which reduces the US involvement in European affairs. According to Vladimir Kolotov, this is a "dead-catting" trend as it is clearly a political race to prove "Who will make more shocking announcements in order to divert the enemy’s attention away and buy themselves more freedom of action". 

The Conference programme included several discussion sessions that covered: the African, East Asian and Middle Eastern segments of the Eurasian arc of instability; the current situation in the post-Soviet space; and global and regional security challenges. 

St Petersburg University experts actively participated in almost every panel. Thus, Nikolai Diakov, Head of the Department of History of the Middle East Countries and Professor Emeritus at St Petersburg University, spoke about the Arab East as a zone of geopolitical turmoil on the threshold of the 21st century. According to Professor Diakov, Russia, due to its historical role and geographical position, is to warn and counsel the Middle East countries. Nikolai Diakov outlined the economic and social situation in the region in the 20th and 21st centuries. In his opinion, the favourable environment for pro-Russian initiatives created in a number of international organisations, in particular in the Arab League, facilitates the rapprochement between nations, especially in the light of the Arab-Israeli crisis.

The Arabs themselves compare the Arab world to a vast ocean. The raft of issues the region is facing today is enormous, and we must rely on the experience, wisdom and restraint of our political leadership in building relationships with our existing and new partners in the region.

Nikolai Diakov, Head of the Department of History of the Middle East Countries and Professor Emeritus at St Petersburg University

Aleksandr Matveev, Assistant Professor in the Department of History of the Middle East at St Petersburg University, focused on the Middle Eastern segment of the arc of instability in the context of the interests of regional blocs and global actors. Nikolai Dobronravin, Professor in the Department of World Politics at St Petersburg University, spoke about the difficult situation in the IGAD countries (Horn of Africa), exacerbated by their struggle for self-determination and instability in the region, and about the factors influencing the situation in this region. Associate Professor Zarine Dzhandosova, Head of Department of Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at St Petersburg University, described the challenges of settling the Kyrgyzstan—Tajikistan border conflict. 

The University scholars and students also participated in the panel dedicated to the East Asian segment of the Eurasian arc of instability. Mikhail Ignatiev, Assistant Professor in the Department of History of the Far East Countries at St Petersburg University, reviewed the reception of the Special Military Operation in the Thai media. Artur Makhlaiuk, a master’s student in the Politics and International Relations in Asia and Africa programme at St Petersburg University, spoke about the modernisation of the Indian Armed Forces. Aleksandr Alekseev, a master’s student in the Asian and African History programme at St Petersburg University, focused on China’s Global Security Initiatives.